Refereed Journal Articles

Homer J.  The growth and stagnation of US life expectancy: a dynamic simulation model and implications. Systems 12(12):510, 13 pp., November 2024. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems12120510.

Romanenko E, Homer J, Lien N.  As Simple as Possible but Not Simpler: Structural Sensitivity Testing of a Dynamic Model of Adolescent Overweight and Obesity. System Dynamics Review, 15 pp., May 2023. https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1732

Romanenko E, Homer J, Fismen A-S, Rutter H, Lien N.  Assessing Policies to Reduce Adolescent Overweight and Obesity: Insights from a System Dynamics Model Using Data from the Health Behavior in School-Aged Children Study. Obesity Reviews, 16 pp., December 2022. https://doi.org/10.1111/obr.13519 

Wakeland W, Homer J. Addressing Parameter Uncertainty in a Health Policy Simulation Model using Monte Carlo Sensitivity Methods. Systems 10(225), 17 pp., November 2022. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems10060225 

Milstein B, Homer J, Soderquist C.  How Can a Community Pursue Equitable Health and Well-Being After a Deep Shock? Ideas from an Exploratory Simulation Model. Systems 10(158), 11 pp., September 2022. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems10050158

Clennin M, Homer J, Erkenbeck A, Kelly C.  Evaluating Public Health Efforts to Prevent and Control Chronic Disease: A Systems Modeling Approach. Systems 10(89), 13 pp., June 2022. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems10040089

Stringfellow EJ, Lim TY, Humphreys K, DiGennaro C, Beaulieu E, Homer J, Wakeland W, Bearnot B, McHugh RK, Kelly J, Glos L, Eggers S, Kazemi R, Jalali MS. Reducing Opioid Use Disorder and Overdose in the United States: A Dynamic Modeling Analysis.  Science Advances, 8(25), 14 pp., June 2022. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abm8147

Lim TY, Stringfellow EJ, Stafford CA, DiGennaro C, Homer JB, Wakeland W, Eggers SL, Kazemi R, Glos L, Ewing EG, Bannister CB, Humphreys K, Throckmorton DC, Jalali MS.  Modeling the Evolution of the U.S. Opioid Crisis for National Policy Development. PNAS, 119(23):e2115714119 (8 pp.), May 2022.  https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2115714119

Homer J. Can Good Government Save Us? Extending a Climate-Population Model to Include Governance and its Effects. Systems 10(37). Online March 2022. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems10020037 

Homer J. Modeling Global Loss of Life from Climate Change Through 2060. System Dynamics Review, 36(4):523-535, 2020. 

Homer J, Wakeland WW. A Dynamic Model of the Opioid Drug Epidemic with Implications for Policy. Am J Drug & Alcohol Abuse. Online June 2020. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00952990.2020.1755677

Milstein B, Homer J. Which Priorities for Health and Well-Being Stand Out After Accounting for Tangled Threats and Costs? Simulating Potential Intervention Portfolios in Large Urban Counties. Milbank Quarterly 98(2):372-398, 2020. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1468-0009.12448

Homer J. Best Practices in System Dynamics Modeling, Revisited: A Practitioner’s View. System Dynamics Review, 35(2):177-181, 2019.

Homer J. A Comment on John Sterman’s “System Dynamics at Sixty: The Path Forward”. System Dynamics Review, 35(1):5-7, 2019.

Homer JB, Richardson GP.  On the Growth of the System Dynamics Field.  System Dynamics Review, 33(3-4):336-346, 2017.  https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1590.

Homer J, Milstein B, Hirsch G, Fisher E. Combined Regional Investments Could Substantially Enhance Health System Performance and Be Financially Affordable. Health Affairs, 35(8):1435-1443, 2016.

McFarland L, Reineke E, Milstein B, Niles RD, Hirsch G, Cawvey E, Homer J, Desai A, Andersen D, MacDonald R, Irving R.  The NASPAA Student Simulation Competition: Reforming the U.S. Health Care System within a Simulated Environment.  J Pub Affairs Educ, 22(3):363-380, 2016.

Homer J, Wile K, Yarnoff B, Trogdon JG, Hirsch G, Cooper L, Soler R, Orenstein D. Using Simulation to Compare Established and Emerging Interventions to Reduce Cardiovascular Disease Risks in the United States. Preventing Chronic Disease, 11(E195):1-14, November 2014. http://www.cdc.gov/pcd/issues/2014/14_0130.htm.

Homer J.  Levels of Evidence in System Dynamics Modeling.  System Dynamics Review, 30:75-80, 2014.

Lich KH, Tian Y, Beadles CA, Williams L, Bravata DM, Cheng EM, Bosworth HB, Homer JB, Matchar DB. Strategic Planning to Reduce the Burden of Stroke among Veterans: Using Simulation Modeling to Inform Decision Making.  Stroke, 45:2078-2084, 2014. 

Hirsch G, Homer J, Wile K, Trogdon JG, Orenstein D.  Using Simulation to Compare 4 Categories of Intervention for Reducing Cardiovascular Disease Risks. American Journal of Public Health, 104(7):1187-1195, 2014.

Homer J. The Aimless Plateau, Revisited: Why the Field of System Dynamics Needs to Establish a More Coherent Identity. System Dynamics Review, 29(2):124-127, 2013.

Mahamoud A, Roche B, Homer J.  Modeling the Social Determinants of Health and Simulating Short-term and Long-term Intervention Impacts for the City of Toronto, Canada. Social Science & Medicine, 93:247-255, 2012.  DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2012.06.036.

Homer JB. Partial-Model Testing as a Validation Tool for System Dynamics (1983). System Dynamics Review, 28(3):281-294 (Archives), 2012.

Milstein B, Homer J, Briss P, Burton D, Pechacek T. Why Behavioral and Environmental Interventions are Needed to Improve Health at Lower Cost. Health Affairs, 30(5), May 2011. DOI: 10.1377/hlthaff.2010.1116.

Kenealy T, Rees D, Sheridan N, Moffitt A, Tibby S, Homer J. A 'Whole of System' Approach to Compare Options for CVD Interventions in Counties Manukau. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health, 36(3):263-268, 2012. DOI: 10.1111/j.1753-6405.2011.00812.x.

Schmidt SM and 16 other authors (incl. Homer J). Proceedings from the Workshop on Estimating the Contribution of Sodium Reduction to Preventable Death. CVD Prevention and Control, 6(2):35-40, 2011.

Milstein B, Homer J, Hirsch G. Analyzing National Health Reform Strategies with a Dynamic Simulation Model. American Journal of Public Health, 100(5):811-819, 2010.

Hirsch G, Homer J, Evans E, Zielinski A. A System Dynamics Model for Planning Cardiovascular Disease Interventions. American Journal of Public Health, 100(4):616-622, 2010.

Homer J, Milstein B, Wile K, Trogdon J, Huang P, Labarthe D, Orenstein D. Simulating and Evaluating Local Interventions to Improve Cardiovascular Health. Preventing Chronic Disease, 7(1), January 2010. http://www.cdc.gov/pcd/issues/2010/jan/08_0231.htm.

Homer J, Milstein B, Wile K, Pratibhu P, Farris R, Orenstein D. Modeling the Local Dynamics of Cardiovascular Health: Risk Factors, Context, and Capacity. Preventing Chronic Disease, 5(2), April 2008. http://www.cdc.gov/pcd/issues/2008/apr/07_0230.htm.

Homer J. Reply to Jay Forrester's "System Dynamics--the Next Fifty Years". System Dynamics Review, 23(4):465-467, 2007.

Homer J, Hirsch G, Milstein B. Chronic Illness in a Complex Health Economy: The Perils and Promises of Downstream and Upstream Reforms. System Dynamics Review, 23(2-3):313-343, 2007.

Milstein B, Jones A, Homer J, Murphy D, Essien J, Seville D. Charting Plausible Futures for Diabetes Prevalence in the United States: A Role for System Dynamics Simulation Modeling. Preventing Chronic Disease, 4(3), July 2007. http://www.cdc.gov/pcd/issues/2007/jul/06_0070.htm.

Homer J, Hirsch G. System Dynamics Modeling for Public Health: Background and Opportunities. American Journal of Public Health, 96(3):452-458, 2006.

Jones A, Homer J, Murphy D, Essien J, Milstein B, Seville D. Understanding Diabetes Population Dynamics Through Simulation Modeling and Experimentation. American Journal of Public Health, 96(3):488-494, 2006.

Hoard M, Homer J, Manley W, Furbee P, Haque A, Helmkamp J. Systems Modeling in Support of Evidence-Based Disaster Planning for Rural Areas. Intl. J of Hygiene and Environmental Health, 208: 117-125, 2005.

Homer J, Hirsch G, Minniti M, Pierson M. Models for Collaboration: How System Dynamics Helped a Community Organize Cost-Effective Care for Chronic Illness. System Dynamics Review, 20(3): 199-222, 2004.

Homer J, Oliva R. Maps and Models in System Dynamics: A Response to Coyle. System Dynamics Review, 17(4): 347-355, 2001.

Homer J, Ritchie-Dunham J, Rabbino H, Puente L, Jorgensen J, Hendricks K. Toward a Dynamic Theory of Antibiotic Resistance. System Dynamics Review, 16(4): 287-319, 2000.

Homer J. Macro- and Micro-Modeling of Field Service Dynamics. System Dynamics Review, 15(2): 139-162, 1999.

Homer J. Structure, Data, and Compelling Conclusions: Notes from the Field. System Dynamics Review, 13(4): 293-309, 1997.

Homer J. Why We Iterate: Scientific Modeling in Theory and Practice. System Dynamics Review, 12(1): 1-19, 1996.

Homer J. A System Dynamics Model for Cocaine Prevalence Estimation and Trend Projection. Journal of Drug Issues, 23(2): 251-279, 1993.

Homer J. Projecting the Impact of Law Enforcement on Cocaine Prevalence. Journal of Drug Issues, 23(2): 281-295, 1993.

Homer J. A System Dynamics Model of National Cocaine Prevalence. System Dynamics Review, 9(1): 49-78, 1993.

Homer J, St. Clair C. A Model of HIV Transmission Through Needle Sharing. Interfaces, 21(3): 26-49, 1991.

Homer J. A Diffusion Model with Application to Evolving Medical Technologies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 31(3): 197-218, 1987.

Homer J. Worker Burnout: A Dynamic Model with Implications for Prevention and Control. System Dynamics Review, 1(1): 42-62, Summer 1985.

Finkelstein S, Homer J, Sondik E. Modeling the Dynamics of Decision-Making for Emerging Medical Technologies. R & D Management, 14(3): 175-191, 1984.

Roberts E, Homer J, Kasabian A, Varrel M. A Systems View of the Smoking Problem. International Journal of Biomedical Computing, 13: 69-86, 1982.

Homer J. Theories of the Industrial Revolution: A Feedback Perspective. DYNAMICA, 8(1): 30-35, Summer 1982.

Books, Book Chapters, Invited Articles, and Special Issue Editorships

Henderson KH, Hammond RA, Homer JB.  Complex Adaptive Systems Simulation Modeling to Address Cardiovascular Disparities: Complex Science for a Complex Problem. Circulation 148:201-203, July 18, 2023. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1161/circulationaha.122.061728

Homer J, Hirsch GB (eds.).  System Dynamics Models for Public Health and Health Care Policy. Reprint book of a special issue of Systems: Basel, Switzerland. 206 pp (10 articles). ISBN: 978-3-0365-7841-5 (hardcover), 978-3-0365-7840-8 (PDF).  June 2023.  Available at: https://www.mdpi.com/books/book/7412

Milstein B, Payne B, Kelleher C, Homer J, Norris T, Roulier M, Saha S.  Organizing Around Vital Conditions Moves the Social Determinants Agenda into Wider Action. Health Affairs Forefront, 5 pp., February 2, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1377/forefront.20230131.673841

Homer J, Milstein B, Hirsch G. System Dynamics Modeling to Rethink Health System Reform.  Chapter 13 (pp. 185-199) in Complex Systems and Population Health: A Primer, ed. Y Apostolopoulos, KH Lich, and MK Lemke. Oxford University Press, New York, NY.  2020. DOI 10.1093/oso/9780190880743.003.0014.

Homer JB.  More Models That Matter: System Dynamics Writings 2011-2017. Grapeseed Press, Barrytown, New York. ISBN: 978-1978097841. October 2017.

Hirsch G, Homer J. System Dynamics Applications to Health Care in the United States. In Encyclopedia of Complexity and System Science, ed. R Meyers. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany. doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-27737-5_270-2.  2nd edition, 2016.  (Extensively updated after 2009 1st edition.)

Hirsch G, Homer J, Tomoaia-Cotisel A (editors).  System Dynamics Applications to Health and Health Care (15 previously published articles with new Introduction and Extended Bibliography). Virtual Issue of System Dynamics Review. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)1099-1727/homepage/VirtualIssuesPage.html.  January 2015.

Homer JB. Models That Matter: Selected Writings on System Dynamics 1985-2010. Grapeseed Press, Barrytown, New York. ISBN: 978-0615679280. October 2012.

Homer J. A Dynamic Model of Cocaine Prevalence in the United States. In System Dynamics, ed. Y Barlas, Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS). http://www.eolss.net. Developed under auspices of UNESCO, EOLSS Publishers, Oxford, UK. 2004.Conference Papers and Presentations

Conference Papers & Presentations (material not otherwise published)

Homer J. Extending a global climate-population model to simulate impacts on human well-being. 42nd International SD Conference, August 2024.

Homer J, Henderson K, Fort M. A Model of Cardiovascular Disease Disparities with Illustrative Policy Analysis.  39th International SD Conference, July 2021.

Kapmeier F, Sterman J, Siegel L, Eker S, Fiddaman T, Homer J, Rooney-Varga J, Jones A. En-ROADS: A Global Energy and Climate Simulator to Support Strategic Thinking and Public Outreach.  EGU General Assembly, April 2021. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7608. 

Homer J.  COVID Dynamics in the United States: Will the Vaccine Save Us?  Featured presentation, Modeling COVID-19: A Panel Discussion (SD Society Seminar Series), December 22, 2020.  https://systemdynamics.org/seminar-series

Homer J.  The Promise and Pitfalls of Systems Modeling: A Practitioner’s Perspective. Featured presentation, Workshop of the Roundtable for Obesity Solutions under the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, September 16, 2020.

Homer J.  Designs for Living: A Simulation Analysis of Factors Affecting Achievement and Satisfaction over the Life Cycle.  35th International SD Conference, Cambridge, MA, 2017.

Homer J, Hirsch G, Cai L.  How Will Mandated Medicare Payment Rate Reductions Affect Hospitals and Patients to 2050?  INFORMS Annual Meeting, San Francisco CA, 2014. 

Hirsch G, Homer J, Milstein B, and others.  ReThink Health Dynamics: Understanding and Influencing Local Health System Change.  30th International SD Conference, St. Gallen, Switzerland, 2012.

Homer J, Curry C.  Drawing Policy Conclusions Out of Uncertainty: The Case of Hospital-Acquired Infections.  SD Winter Camp, Austin, TX, 2011.

Milstein B, Homer J, Hirsch G.  The “HealthBound” Policy Simulation Game: An Adventure in U.S. Health Reform.  27th International SD Conference, Albuquerque, NM, 2009.

Matchar DB, Lich KH, Homer J, Lee SD.  Using System Dynamics Tools to Integrate Evidence into VA Stroke Care.  Veterans Health Administration QUERI National Meeting, Phoenix, AZ, 2008.

Homer J, Milstein B, Dietz W, Buchner D, Majestic E. Obesity Population Dynamics: Exploring Historical Growth and Plausible Futures in the U.S.  24th International SD Conference, Nijmegen, The Netherlands, 2006.

Hirsch G, Homer J, McDonnell G, Milstein B. Achieving Health Care Reform in the United States: Toward a Whole-System Understanding. 23rd International SD Conference, Boston, MA, 2005.

Manley W, Homer J, and others.  A Dynamic Model to Support Surge Capacity Planning in a Rural Hospital. 23rd International SD Conference, Boston, MA, 2005.

Homer J, Jones A, Seville D, Essien J, Milstein B, Murphy D.  The CDC’s Diabetes Systems Modeling Project: Developing a New Tool for Chronic Disease Prevention and Control. 22nd International SD Conference, Oxford, England, 2004.

Hirsch G, Homer J. Modeling the Dynamics of Health Care Services for Improved Chronic Illness Management. 22nd International SD Conference, Oxford, England, 2004.

Hirsch G, Homer J.  Integrating Chronic Illness Management, Improved Access to Care, and Idealized Clinical Practice Design in Health Care Organizations: A Systems Thinking Approach. International Conference on Systems Thinking in Management, Philadelphia, PA, 2004.

Homer J, Milstein B. Optimal Decision Making in a Dynamic Model of Community Health. Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, Waikoloa-Kona, Hawaii, 2004. 

Homer J, Milstein B. Planning Comprehensive Public Health Programs: A Promising Opportunity for SD.  SD Winter Camp, Austin, TX, 2003.

Homer J, Milstein B.  Communities with Multiple Afflictions: A System Dynamics Approach to the Study and Prevention of Syndemics. 20th International SD Conference, Palermo, Italy, 2002.

Homer J, Jorgensen J, Hendricks K.  Modeling the Emergence of Multidrug Antibiotic Resistance. 19th International SD Conference, Atlanta, GA, 2001.

Homer J. Notes from the S.D./O.R. Frontier.  SD Winter Camp, Austin, TX, 2000.

Homer J, Keane T, Lukianseva N, Bell D.  Evaluating Strategies to Improve Railroad Performance: A System Dynamics Approach. Winter Simulation Conference, Phoenix, AZ, 1999.

Homer J, Nickols F. Enterprise Modeling at ETS: Highways and Byways. International SD Conference, Cambridge, MA, 1996.

Homer J. System Dynamics for Strategic Forecasting. Pharmaceutical Management Science Association Conference, Captiva Island, FL, 1994.

Homer J. Pharmaceutical Market Models for Strategy Support. TIMS/ORSA National Conference, Cambridge, MA, 1994.

Homer, J, Sterman J, Greenwood B, Perkola M. Delivery Time Reduction in Pulp and Paper Mill Construction Projects:  A Dynamic Analysis of Alternatives. 11th International SD Conference, Cancún, Mexico, 1993.

Homer J, Somers I.  Defense Program Lifecycle Management: A Dynamic Model for Policy Analysis.  6th International SD Conference, La Jolla, CA, 1988.

Homer J, John R, Cotreau W. A Dynamic Model for Understanding Eating Disorders. 4th International Conference of the SD Society, Seville, Spain, 1986.

Homer J. “By Prescription Only”: A Computer Simulation Game for Understanding the Emergence of New Medical Treatments.  3rd International Conference of the SD Society, Keystone, CO, 1985.

 Homer J.  The Effect of Government Regulation on the Emergence of a New Medical Technology. International SD Conference, Rensellaerville, NY, 1981.

Reports and Monographs for the Fannie E. Rippel Foundation

Homer J.  Reference Guide for the ReThink Health Dynamics Simulation Model: A Tool for Regional Health Transformation; Model Version 3v. For Fannie E. Rippel Foundation, November 2018. (Formerly: Version 3s, June 2016.)

Homer J.  Simulating Four Possible Policy Reversals and How They Might Affect the Nation’s Health.  For Fannie E. Rippel Foundation, December 2016.

Homer J.  Rethinking the “Bradley Ratio”.  For Fannie E. Rippel Foundation, June 2016.

Homer J.  Modeling Value-Based and Global Payments and their Effects.  For Fannie E. Rippel Foundation, December 2015.

Homer J.  Modeling the Effects of Underinsurance.  For Fannie E. Rippel Foundation, November 2015.

Homer J.  Calculating Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) in the RTH Dynamics Model.  For Fannie E. Rippel Foundation, September 2015.

Homer J.  Could Healthcare Cost Reductions Cause Economic Imbalance and Harm?  For Fannie E. Rippel Foundation, September 2015.

Homer J.  Introduction to the ReThink Health Dynamics Model: Simulating Local Health Reform in “Anytown USA". For Fannie E. Rippel Foundation, August 2013. 

Homer J.  Does Place Matter for Policy? The Effect of Local Characteristics on Intervention Priorities in the ReThink Health Dynamics Model.  For Fannie E. Rippel Foundation, August 2013.

Homer J.  How Could One Do the Most Good Here? Using the ReThink Health Dynamics Model to Evaluate Combined Intervention Strategies for Local Health Systems.  For Fannie E. Rippel Foundation, August 2013.

Homer J, Hirsch G. Modification and Testing of the HealthBound Simulation Model in Support of a New View of Health System Reform. For the Fannie E. Rippel Foundation, June 2009.

Other Reports and Monographs

Homer J.  Online tool: “Root Causes: Explore What Affects Mental Health in Colorado.”  For Colorado Health Institute, January 2021.  https://www.coloradohealthinstitute.org/research/root-causes

Homer J. PRISM: The Prevention Impacts Simulation Model. Reference Guide for Model Version 3s. For RTI International and CDC, May 2019. (Formerly: Version 3q, May 2015, and Version 09v2q, November 2010.)

Homer J, Hirsch G.  A Model for Exploring the Impact of Medicare Rate Reductions on Providers and Patients: Reference Guide.  For Office of the Actuary, Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services, June 2014.

Homer J. Diabetes System Model Reference Guide (revised). For the Division of Diabetes Translation, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (in association with Sustainability Institute and Center for Public Health Practice, Emory University), August 2006.

Homer J. The Evolution of a Radical New Technology: The Implantable Cardiac Pacemaker. MIT Sloan School of Management Case Study (ed. J Sterman), 1996.

Hser Y-I, Anglin MD, Wickens T, Brecht M-L, Homer J. Techniques for the Estimation of Illicit Drug-Use Prevalence: An Overview of Relevant Issues. National Institute of Justice Research Report NCJ 133786, May 1992.

Homer J. A Dynamic Model for Analyzing the Impact of Configuration Management on Program Implementation. Submitted to Hughes Aircraft Company (under contract with USC), September 1985.

Homer J. The Role of Consumer Demand in Business Cycle Entrainment. System Dynamics Group Paper D-3227-1, MIT, Cambridge, MA, October 1980.

Homer J. Home Insurance in a Changing Residential Community: A System Dynamics Approach and Case Study. Sloan School Working Paper WP 1107-80, MIT, Cambridge, MA, Dec. 1979.

Blog Posts

Homer J. Don’t Dismiss Goodness-of-Fit. July 2021. https://systemdynamics.org/dont-dismiss-goodness-of-fit

Homer J.  Systems Thinking, Fast and Slow. May 2021.  https://systemdynamics.org/systems-thinking-fast-and-slow

Homer J.  Modeling for Implementation: An Illusion of Control?  February 2021.  https://systemdynamics.org/modeling-for-implementation-an-illusion-of-control/

Homer J. Models, Maps, and Levels of Evidence. December 2020. https://systemdynamics.org/models-maps-and-levels-of-evidence/

Homer J. Modeling for Impact in the Era of Big Data. October 2020. https://systemdynamics.org/modeling-for-impact-in-the-era-of-big-data/

Homer J. Eight Short Essays on SD Practice. March 2019 - October 2019. Available individually at https://systemdynamics.org/system-dynamics-blog/